Arcadis Warns of UK Construction "Double Dip" — Orders Down 18%, Bid Prices Below Inflation
What happened
Arcadis has published its Autumn 2026 Market View, warning that the UK construction sector is at risk of a "double dip" as weak demand, falling orders, and renewed cost pressures undermine confidence.
The numbers paint a stark picture:
- New orders fell 11.9% in Q2 and were down 18% year on year — the second consecutive quarter of double-digit decline
- New-build output remains 6% below last year despite a marginal 0.4% quarterly increase
- Materials inflation hit 6% year on year in June — the highest since March 2023
- European gas prices are up 55% year on year, with copper up 39%
- Construction earnings growth sits at just 0.3%, compared to 3.3% across the wider economy
Simon Rawlinson, Head of Strategic Research at Arcadis, said: "Output is barely moving, orders have fallen sharply for two quarters in a row, and that points to a clear risk of a double dip in workload."
The report also flags that many contractors are now working at sub-inflation bid prices — meaning the value of their work is falling in real terms as material costs outpace what clients will pay.
What this means for tradespeople
The squeeze works its way down the chain. When main contractors have thinner margins, they push harder on subcontractor pricing. When housing starts stay weak and commercial work stalls, there are simply fewer domestic and commercial jobs to go around.
For self-employed tradespeople — plumbers, electricians, roofers, joiners — this means more competition for the same pool of work. When a homeowner in Manchester needs a bathroom fitted, they're likely getting quotes from more tradespeople than they did a year ago.
In that environment, the tradespeople who stand out are the ones with strong online reputations. When five electricians quote for the same rewire, the one with 85 five-star Google reviews wins the job — even if they're not the cheapest.
What to do about it
- Focus on your Google reviews now — in a competitive market, your review profile is the difference between getting the callback and being one of four quotes that go nowhere
- Ask every satisfied customer for a review — consistency matters more than total count. TapReview is a £9/month tool that helps UK tradespeople get more Google reviews with one tap after every job
- Keep your Google Business Profile updated with current photos, services, and service areas — it costs nothing and makes you visible when homeowners search
Source: Arcadis