CPA Forecasts UK Construction Output to Fall 2.5% in 2026 — Private Housing Down 7%
What happened
The Construction Products Association (CPA) released its Spring 2026 forecast on 5 May, predicting UK construction output will fall 2.5% this year. The CPA called it a "sharp, unprecedented downward revision" — its winter forecast just six months ago had predicted 1.7% growth.
Private housing is the worst-hit sector, forecast to decline 7%. Private housing repair, maintenance and improvement (RM&I) — the bread-and-butter work for most domestic tradespeople — is forecast to drop 8%. Commercial construction is expected to fall 3.7%. Only infrastructure is growing, up 3.2%, driven by long-term government-backed programmes.
The main driver is the Middle East conflict, which has pushed up oil and energy prices and fed directly into construction material costs. The CPA's worse-case scenario sees the UK tipping into recession, with construction output collapsing 4.7% and private housing falling 10%.
What this means for tradespeople
Fewer new housing starts and less homeowner spending on improvements means more tradespeople competing for less work. If you're an electrician, plumber, or builder who relies on domestic projects — extensions, loft conversions, bathroom refits, kitchen installs — the pipeline is shrinking.
When work gets tighter, homeowners become more selective. They compare more quotes, check more profiles, and read more reviews before committing. The tradespeople who stay busy through a downturn are the ones who are easiest to find and most trusted online.
What to do about it
Now is the time to invest in your online visibility, not cut back. Make sure your Google Business Profile is fully set up and active. Keep collecting Google reviews consistently — when there are fewer jobs to go around, the tradesperson with 47 five-star reviews gets the call over the one with 3.
Source: Construction Products Association — Spring 2026 Forecast